Troubling Signs At 350 Central Park West
2019 Manhattan Red-tailed Hawk Nest Update 8

Math Problem For Pale Male and Octavia

Although I hope I'm wrong, I can't get the math to work out for Pale Male and Octavia. 

Octavia started sitting on the nest on March 17th.  When you calculate a hatch date, you start with 28-35 days for incubation, add a few days just in case the female starts sitting before laying eggs, and add a week more since the eggs can take a week to lay, and if only the last one hatches it will be later.  That's at worst case, 35 plus 14 days, or May 5th.  Today is May 15th.

The "regulars" who follow Pale Male and Octavia year round didn't see them copulate this season. 

So, the nest most likely won't hatch. 

When Lola was infertile, she would sit for a long time on the nest before giving up each year.  I think we're seeing the same thing with Octavia this year.